Social networks and Brexit: Evidence from a trade shock

Mastrosavvas, Andreas 2024. Social networks and Brexit: Evidence from a trade shock. Regional Science and Urban Economics 108 , 104024. 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104024

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Abstract

Regional exposure to Chinese import competition has often been linked to support for the Leave option in the 2016 UK EU membership referendum. Looking at 143 harmonised International Territorial Level 3 (ITL3) regions covering England and Wales, and using data on the density of online social ties between them, I show that regional support for leaving the EU was also associated with exposure in socially connected regions. I first delineate 18 commuting zones based on interregional flows over three Census years. For each region, I then construct a measure of own exposure to Chinese import competition and a measure of exposure in a set of social neighbours located outside its commuting zone. Exploiting variation within commuting zones, and using an instrumental variable approach, I find that the two measures have comparable positive effects on the regional share of the Leave vote. In a series of checks, I do not find evidence that the effect of social neighbours’ exposure is driven by an economic channel or a relationship between import competition and social ties. I also corroborate the regional results using survey data on vote choice. I interpret these findings as indicative of social spillovers between local labour markets: information flows from social neighbours are a likely channel behind the estimated spillover effects on voting outcomes.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Social Sciences (Includes Criminology and Education)
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0166-0462
Funders:	ESRC
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	17 June 2024
Date of Acceptance:	15 May 2024
Last Modified:	19 Jun 2024 14:35
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/169811

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