The impact of precursor regulations on illicit drug markets: An analysis of Cunningham et al.ʼs studies

Giommoni, Luca ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3127-654X 2025. The impact of precursor regulations on illicit drug markets: An analysis of Cunningham et al.ʼs studies. International Journal of Drug Policy 138 , 104498. 10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104498

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Abstract

This review examines a series of twelve studies led by James K. Cunningham and his team, focusing on the effects of precursor regulation on illicit drug markets. Their research shows that the regulation of chemicals essential for the production of drugs such as heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine is associated with several positive outcomes. These include a decrease in drug purity, a reduction in seizures, lower demand for treatment and hospitalization, and an increase in drug prices. According to the research, this decrease in harmful outcomes results from a combination of diminished overall consumption and a reduction in harm per dose. However, this review identifies some inconsistencies within their studies. These inconsistencies include premature assumptions about the timing of intervention impacts, uneven influences of similar interventions, variations in the implementation of these interventions, and the disregard of alternate explanations for sudden shifts in drug markets. Cunningham's work can be considered one of the most substantial contributions in this field. However, to secure the full confidence of the drug policy community in the authenticity of their findings, they must effectively address the issues identified in this review.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Social Sciences (Includes Criminology and Education)
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0955-3959
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	21 June 2024
Date of Acceptance:	4 June 2024
Last Modified:	16 Apr 2025 10:01
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/170057

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