Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: the impact of government policy in England

Morrissey, Karyn, Spooner, Fiona, Salter, James and Shaddick, Gavin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4117-4264 2021. Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: the impact of government policy in England. Social Science and Medicine 289 , 114413. 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114413

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Abstract

This paper aims to understand the relationship between area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases in England in response to government policy throughout 2020. The response variable is monthly reported COVID-19 cases at the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level by Public Health England, with Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), ethnicity (percentage of the population across 5 ethnicity categories) and the percentage of the population older than 70 years old and time as predictors. A GEE population-averaged panel-data model was employed to model trends in monthly COVID-19 cases with the population of each MSOA included as the exposure variable. Area level deprivation is significantly associated with COVID-19 cases from March 2020; however, this relationship is reversed in December 2020. Follow up analysis found that this reversal was maintained when controlling for the novel COVID-19 variant outbreak in the South East of England. This analysis indicates that changes in the role of deprivation and monthly reported COVID-19 over time cases may be linked to two government policies: (1) the premature easing of national restrictions in July 2020 when cases were still high in the most deprived areas in England and (2) the introduction of a regional tiered system in October predominantly in the North of England. The analysis adds to the evidence showing that deprivation is a key driver of COVID-19 outcomes and highlights the unintended negative impact of government policy.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	?? VCO ??
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0277-9536
Date of Acceptance:	17 September 2021
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2024 11:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/170765

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