Using simulation for long-term bed modelling in critical care

Lentlea, Debbie, Sachser, Victoria, Incze, Eduard, Tako, Antuela, Rostami-Tabar, Bahman ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3730-0045, Spencer, Craig and Morgan, Jennifer 2024. Using simulation for long-term bed modelling in critical care. Journal of Simulation 10.1080/17477778.2024.2412009

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Abstract

A simulation model of the Critical Care (CC) Department within University Hospital of Wales (UHW) is presented. This is the first CC model developed that considers the impact of future demand on the capacity of the UHW and to support forward planning decisions to build a new hospital. To build the model a combination of long-term demand trajectories and Discrete Event Simulation (DES) are used. The SIMUL8 software was used to build the model based on patient-level data spanning two years of CC activity. Based on the results of the simulation, the planned University Hospital of Wales 2 will need at least 66 Intensive Care Unit beds and 19 Post-Anaesthesia Care Unit beds in order to fulfil predicted demand in 2040 while being at capacity less than 5% of the time. Non-critical care ward beds have also been found to have an impact on the flow of patients in critical care, thus they must also be considered when planning the new hospital. The findings of this study have a direct impact on decision making at UHW and the outcomes are being used to inform capacity planning of the critical care ward in the planned University Hospital of Wales 2. This paper contributes to the application domain, presenting a key element of an infrastructure planning project using simulation as a decision-making tool, with transferable insights applicable to the planning of other future CC units.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	In Press
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Publisher:	Taylor and Francis
ISSN:	1747-7778
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	18 October 2024
Date of Acceptance:	13 September 2024
Last Modified:	18 Oct 2024 08:09
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/172838

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