Recurrence time and size of Chilean earthquakes influenced by geological structure

Julve Lillo, Joaquin ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9430-6814, Barbot, Sylvain, Moreno, Marcos, Tassara, Andres, Araya, Rodolfo, Catalan, Nicole, Crempien, Jorge G. and Becerra-Carreño, Valeria 2024. Recurrence time and size of Chilean earthquakes influenced by geological structure. Nature Geoscience 17 , 79–87. 10.1038/s41561-023-01327-8

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Abstract

In 1960, the giant Valdivia earthquake (moment magnitude, Mw, 9.5), the largest earthquake ever recorded, struck the Chilean subduction zone, rupturing the entire depth of the seismogenic zone and extending for 1,000 km along strike. The first sign of new seismic energy release since 1960 occurred in 2017 with the Melinka earthquake (Mw 7.6), which affected only a portion of the deepest part of the seismogenic zone. Despite the recognition that rupture characteristics and rheology vary with depth, the mechanical controls behind such variations of earthquake size remain elusive. Here we build quasi-dynamic simulations of the seismic cycle in southern Chile including frictional and viscoelastic properties, drawing upon a compilation of geological and geophysical insights to explain the recurrence times of recent, historic, and palaeoseismic earthquakes and the distribution of fault slip and crustal deformation associated with the Melinka and Valdivia earthquakes. We find that the frictional and rheological properties of the forearc, which are primarily controlled by the geological structure and fluid distribution at the megathrust, govern the magnitude and recurrence patterns of earthquakes in Chile.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Earth and Environmental Sciences
Publisher:	Nature Research
ISSN:	1752-0894
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	10 November 2024
Date of Acceptance:	19 October 2013
Last Modified:	17 Jan 2025 15:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/173622

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