A directional relationship between freight and newbuilding markets: a panel analysis

Xu, Jane ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5550-1342, Yip, Tsz Leung and Liu, Liming 2011. A directional relationship between freight and newbuilding markets: a panel analysis. Maritime Economics & Logistics 13 (1) , pp. 44-60. 10.1057/mel.2010.20

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Abstract

This article examines the dynamic relationship between international sea freight rate and newbuilding price by employing panel cointegration testing and estimating techniques. The primary question this article addresses is whether the goods (new ships) price and service (sea freight) rate lead or lag one another in a Granger-cause sense, or simultaneously move together. Monthly panel data on three different bulk shipping market segments over the period 1998–2009 are exploited in empirical analysis. Various panel unit root tests demonstrate that the data variables are integrated with unit roots, whereas panel cointegration techniques are used to estimate the dynamic relationship. A positive directional relationship from freight rate to newbuilding price is found, and freight rate is more sensitive to market changes than newbuilding price. These results indicate that investment in new ships is encouraged by a strong freight market.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Uncontrolled Keywords:	cross-market analysis; newbuilding price; freight rate; panel unit root; panel cointegration; VECM.
Publisher:	Palgrave Macmillan
ISSN:	1479-2931
Last Modified:	18 Oct 2022 14:29
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/17729

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