Qu, Jiawei, Hou, Kai, Liu, Zeyu, Zhou, Yue  ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6698-4714, Zhu, Lewei, Dong, Xiaohong, Mu, Yunfei and Jia, Hongjie
2025.
A hybrid time-and-event-driven strategy for integrated community energy system planning.
Applied Energy
384
, 125274.
10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125274
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Abstract
Unpredictable events such as technological breakthroughs and energy policy shifts can cause significant errors in the forecast of the parameters like equipment performance and energy demands. Traditional single-stage and fixed multi-stage planning methods struggle with unpredictable events, severely impacting the accuracy of the planning of Integrated Community Energy Systems (ICES). As a solution, a Hybrid Time-and-Event-Driven Multi-Stage Planning (HTED-MSP) method is proposed for ICES. The HTED-MSP method determines the start time of each planning stage based on a combination of time and specific event. Specifically, the event-driven strategy mitigates unpredictable changes in load growth, energy prices, and technological advancements on costs, with trigger conditions determined by marginal cost analysis. Meanwhile, the time-driven strategy enhances long-term reliability of ICES. Considering the significant impact of renewable energy variability and equipment failures on reliability, the HTED-MSP method quantifies these factors using 8760-h normal and N-k contingency scenarios. A State Similarity (SS) method is then proposed to address the computational burden of massive scenarios by simplifying the optimization process into an equation-solving approach. The case study demonstrates that HTED-MSP significantly reduces additional costs caused by unpredictable events. The computational efficiency of the SS method is more than ten times greater than the existing two-stage algorithms.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Date Type: | Publication |
| Status: | Published |
| Schools: | Schools > Engineering |
| Publisher: | Elsevier |
| ISSN: | 0306-2619 |
| Funders: | National Natural Science Foundation of China program . |
| Date of First Compliant Deposit: | 3 April 2025 |
| Date of Acceptance: | 2 January 2025 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Jan 2026 02:45 |
| URI: | https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/177378 |
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