Wishful thinking in response to events: evidence from the 2021 German federal election

Barnfield, Matthew, Phillips, Joseph, Stoeckel, Florian, Merola, Vittorio, Stockli, Sabrina, Lyons, Benjamin, Thompson, Jack, Szewach, Paula and Reifler, Jason 2025. Wishful thinking in response to events: evidence from the 2021 German federal election. Electoral Studies: An International Journal on Voting and Electoral Systems and Strategy 95 , 102940. 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102940

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Abstract

When making uncertain judgments about the political future, people consistently see desired outcomes as more likely. But when major events reduce uncertainty about what is possible in the future, how do people's expectations respond? In a panel study conducted during the 2021 German federal election, we find that citizens' predictions of likely coalitions converge after the election takes place, but even after this convergence those expectations remain marked by significant partisan gaps. The election result substantially reduces uncertainty about coalition formation—decreasing, but far from eliminating, differences in expectations between groups with different preferences. Our findings provide a clear case of static wishful thinking (contemporaneous association between preferences and expectations) without dynamic wishful thinking (divergence over time in expectations in line with preferences), suggesting that citizens' expectations of the future, regardless of their prior commitments, respond accordingly to events, but wishful thinking persists even in contexts of dramatically reduced uncertainty.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	In Press
Schools:	Schools > Department of Politics and International Relations (POLIR) Research Institutes & Centres > Wales Governance Centre (WGCES)
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0261-3794
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	6 May 2025
Date of Acceptance:	25 April 2025
Last Modified:	02 Jun 2025 09:45
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/178077

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