Measuring impacts of Brexit on migration and regional economic growth of the UK: the case of Wales

Jin, Nuo 2024. Measuring impacts of Brexit on migration and regional economic growth of the UK: the case of Wales. PhD Thesis, Cardiff University. Item availability restricted.

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Abstract

This thesis examines the nexus between Brexit and international migration to Wales and the Welsh economy, adopting a series of macro and micro-level datasets as well as multiple empirical methodologies. Wales as a significant component of the UK deserves in-depth studies in Brexit-related regional economic impacts. In Chapter 1, the author offers comprehensive introduction to background and motivation for Brexit, research logic of this thesis, main findings, and thesis structure. Chapter 2 then focuses on a more detailed discussion of the history of Brexit, economic and political contributors of Brexit, and comparison of Brexit to other independence movements in Europe. This chapter sets up the background context for empirical studies in this thesis. In Chapter 3, the author provides critical information about the current literature of Brexit and its economic impacts in Wales and the UK, with major topics of impacts of Brexit on migration to Wales and the UK, on the Welsh and UK economy (GDP) and on international trade that will be examined in following empirical analysis chapters. It also gives several existing approaches utilised to analyse these issues, followed by the specific review of current Brexit studies in Wales. Chapter 4 is the first empirical chapter, critically examining impacts of Brexit on international migration to Wales. It for the first time highlights the significance of region-based perspectives of Brexit-related migration studies in the UK and analyses how migrants with various patterns responded differently to Brexit and gives estimations of migration to Wales in the future. Chapter 5 is the second empirical chapter, containing a series of empirical methods to measure impacts of Brexit on major factors of the Welsh economy, namely international trade between Wales and other countries, inward FDI in Wales, and overall economic growth in Wales measured by GDP per capita. Chapter 6 is the third empirical chapter, revisiting economic impacts of Brexit in Wales from a firm-level perspective. It utilises the FAME database, a panel data model, and additional PSM-DID analysis to critically illustrate how Brexit affects corporate productivity in Wales. The Welsh economy, similar to the UK economy, is largely made up of the private sector, thus corporate performance and resilience to Brexit require more academic attention. Chapter 7 concludes this thesis with summary and discussion of future developments.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Date Type:	Completion
Status:	Unpublished
Schools:	Schools > Business (Including Economics)
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	28 May 2025
Last Modified:	28 May 2025 08:20
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/178540

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