Modeling heterogeneity in the long-term trajectories of individuals’ well-being

Wollast, Robin, Phillips, Joseph B., Bracegirdle, Chloe, Spiegler, Olivia, Sibley, Chris G., Lacourse, Éric and Sengupta, Nikhil K. 2025. Modeling heterogeneity in the long-term trajectories of individuals’ well-being. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 10.1177/01461672251331654

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Abstract

Very little is known about how long-term well-being trajectories vary across populations. Using data from 45,160 adults in New Zealand (62% women, M age = 41 years) surveyed annually over 13 years, we identified latent trajectories for belongingness, social support, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. Through a group-based trajectory modeling approach, we found five trajectory groups: low (3%–5%), moderate (11%–17%), moderate-high (29%–32%), high (35%–45%), and very high (11%–20%) well-being. While most individuals showed minimal changes, those with initially low well-being experienced the greatest change, in the direction of decreasing well-being over time. Individuals with higher education were more likely to follow higher well-being trajectories. Similarly, women were more likely to follow higher well-being trajectories, except for self-esteem, where men tended to score higher over time. Lastly, age and ethnicity demonstrated more complex patterns. These findings highlight the importance of acknowledging long-term heterogeneity in well-being trajectories and emphasize the need for targeted preventive mental health interventions, particularly for individuals who begin with lower well-being levels.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	In Press
Schools:	Schools > Cardiff Law & Politics
Publisher:	SAGE Publications
ISSN:	0146-1672
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	2 June 2025
Last Modified:	02 Jun 2025 10:30
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/178633

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