Accelerating heat stress and human survivability risk in Qatar

Chilukuri, Lakshmi Sravani, Mourshed, Monjur ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8347-1366, Subramanian, Veerasingam and Perianayagam, Arokiasamy 2025. Accelerating heat stress and human survivability risk in Qatar. Presented at: Exploring the Nexus of Climate, Health and Environment (CHE2025), Doha, Qatar, 25-26 October 2025. Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar,

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Abstract

Background: Rising temperatures and humidity in arid regions like Qatar are amplifying heat stress risks, posing significant threats to population health. Wet bulb temperature (Tw), which combines air temperature and humidity, is a key indicator of human survivability under extreme heat. This study investigates the trends in Tw and related climate variables in a warming climate and their potential health risks. Methods: Hourly ERA5-Land reanalysis data 1995-2024 were used to compute daily and monthly means of 2-m air temperature, surface temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity (RH) for Qatar. Tw was estimated using 2-m air temperature and RH. For each variable, monthly means and 12-month moving averages were calculated to assess historical trends. Trends across two distinct periods (1995–2024 and 2015–2024) were assessed using linear regression. Results: Wet bulb temperature in Qatar increased by 0.30°C per decade from 1995 to 2024, doubling to 0.68°C in the past 10 years. In Doha, the trend reached 1.11 °C per decade. Between 1995 and 2024, Doha recorded 203 days with Tw > 30°C, with increasing frequency each year. Tw>31°C occurrences began after 2020, marking a new threshold of extreme heat stress. Other climate indicators similarly displayed notable warming trends in 2-m air temperature, rising from 0.34°C to 0.63°C per decade in Qatar and from 0.27°C to 0.51°C per decade in Doha. Surface temperature trends similarly doubled. RH in Doha increased by 2.94% per decade. Hourly Tw patterns in Qatar and Doha show an increased intensity and duration of hazardous heat, especially during the summer, indicating significant health risks from extreme heat stress. Conclusion: The rising climate stress indicators over the past decade show a major shift in Qatar's environment. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate mitigation and resilient healthcare systems to address increasing heat-related health and mortality risks.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Status:	Unpublished
Schools:	Schools > Engineering
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General)
Publisher:	Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar
Funders:	Qatar Research Development and Innovation Council
Related URLs:	https://qatar-weill.cornell.edu/event/en...
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	23 November 2025
Date of Acceptance:	28 September 2025
Last Modified:	24 Nov 2025 16:15
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/182586

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