Unwanted variability in child welfare decision-making: an empirical investigation

Nordmo, Lene Caroline Ljosland, Wilkins, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2780-0385 and Nordmo, Magnus 2025. Unwanted variability in child welfare decision-making: an empirical investigation. Journal of Social Work Practice 10.1080/02650533.2025.2589778

PDF - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB)

Abstract

Assessing a parent’s ability to provide safe, nurturing care is critical yet difficult. Child welfare professionals must make such judgements, but they are complex and prone to noise, understood as unwanted variability. Noise arises when decisions rely on ambiguous information and discretion-laden criteria, a common feature in child welfare. In Study 1 (N = 49), professionals independently rated the overall quality of care in ten vignettes varying in concern severity, information completeness, and source. Inter-rater reliability was .50, with 24.7% of the variance due to systematic rater differences, suggesting varying thresholds for unsafe parenting. In Study 2 (N = 44), we tested whether averaging domain-specific evaluations could reduce noise. Although reliability improved modestly, the change was not significant. These results highlight the need for noise-reduction strategies to improve consistency in child welfare assessments. Because noise is measurable and predictably introduces error, we recommend integrating targeted noise-reduction measures.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	In Press
Schools:	Schools > Social Sciences (Includes Criminology and Education)
Additional Information:	License information from Publisher: LICENSE 1: URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, Start Date: 2025-11-27
Publisher:	Taylor and Francis Group
ISSN:	0265-0533
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	9 December 2025
Date of Acceptance:	31 October 2025
Last Modified:	09 Dec 2025 11:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/183023

Actions (repository staff only)

Edit Item