Schultz, Ryan, Lanza, Federica, Dyer, Ben, Karvounis, Dimitrios, Fiori, Rémi, Shi, Peidong  ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5782-245X, Ritz, Vanille, Villiger, Linus, Meier, Peter and Wiemer, Stefan
2025.
The bound growth of induced earthquakes could de-risk hydraulic fracturing.
Communications Earth & Environment
6
, 995.
10.1038/s43247-025-02881-2
|
Preview |
PDF
- Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (5MB) | Preview |
Abstract
The world’s energy supply depends critically on hydraulic fracturing (HF) to access otherwise uneconomical resources. Unfortunately, HF also has the potential to induce larger earthquakes – with some projects being prematurely terminated because of perceived earthquake risks. To de-risk HF, we use a suite of statistical tests to discern if some physical process has restricted the growth of earthquake magnitudes. We show that all stage stimulations at both UK PNR-1z and Helsinki St1 indicate bound fracture growth, implying a more controllable operation. Contrastingly, stimulations at Utah FORGE and UK PNR-2 sequentially transitioned into unbound fault reactivation. The problematic stages (that ultimately led to the termination of PNR-2) are clearly distinguishable. We postulate that our research can discriminate fracture stimulation from fault reactivation, contributing to the de-risking of HF operations worldwide. Our statistical tests provide a framework for model falsification, which can guide physical insights into the bounding processes.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Date Type: | Published Online |
| Status: | Published |
| Schools: | Schools > Earth and Environmental Sciences |
| Publisher: | Nature Research |
| ISSN: | 2662-4435 |
| Date of First Compliant Deposit: | 12 December 2025 |
| Date of Acceptance: | 6 October 2025 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Dec 2025 10:45 |
| URI: | https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/183179 |
Actions (repository staff only)
 |
Edit Item |
Dimensions
Dimensions