Rising risk of elephant-caused human casualties in Tropical Asia

Goossens, Benoit ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2360-4643 2026. Rising risk of elephant-caused human casualties in Tropical Asia. 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8113717/v1

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Abstract

Interactions with wild Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) cause > 750 human deaths annually, making human–elephant conflict an under-recognized sustainability issue. We compiled 1,457 georeferenced records of elephant-caused human casualties (deaths and injuries) across 10 countries (2000–2024) and modeled baseline (2015) and 2050 risks. Fatalities are concentrated in South Asia but are rising in Southeast Asia. Risk is driven primarily by landscape features—habitat quality, fragmentation, terrain, and proximity to protected areas and plantations—rather than human density or economic development. Across three socioeconomic scenarios, 2050 projections are consistent, with area at risk increasing by 7.7%, human exposure increasing by ~ 30% to 455 million people, and severe-risk populations increasing ~ 15-fold. Hotspots cluster at forest edges, protected-area peripheries, and agricultural/plantation mosaics. These findings expose a sustainability paradox: coexistence efforts can inadvertently intensify risks for communities living alongside conflict-prone megafauna. Prioritizing human safety is essential to sustain conservation outcomes and social legitimacy.

Item Type:	Working paper
Date Type:	Submission
Schools:	Schools > Biosciences
Additional Information:	Please see full list of authors via the website: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-8113717/v1
Last Modified:	16 Feb 2026 16:45
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/184894

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