Kadri, Usama  ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5441-1812 and Filimonov, Maxim ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3144-9252
2025.
Basin-scale geometric focusing: A probabilistic-geometric framework for global tsunami hazard assessment and the 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula Tsunami.
10.5194/egusphere-2025-6048
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Abstract
We present a hybrid probabilistic-geometric framework that integrates probabilistic earthquake statistics with large-scale ray-tracing simulations to efficiently map global coastal tsunami exposure. Utilizing a catalog of historical tsunamigenic events and the Gutenberg-Richter relation, we derive probabilistic weights for over 9,000 rays released across potential fault zones. The simulated ray pathways reveal persisting bathymetry-driven energy convergence patterns that govern far-field coastal focusing and shadowing. The geometric framework's predictive power is demonstrated using the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka Peninsula event. Validation against the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake utilizes phase-corrected FUNWAVE-TVD simulations and in-situ DART observations. The resulting ray-based coastal focusing patterns display a substantial qualitative and quantitative spatial agreement (Spearman's ρ = 0.66) with the transoceanic maximum wave amplitudes from the high-fidelity FUNWAVE-TVD model. This agreement confirms the hybrid probabilistic-geometric approach as a scalable and computationally efficient tool for rapidly identifying coastal hotspots of transoceanic tsunami impact.
| Item Type: | Working paper |
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| Date Type: | Submission |
| Schools: | Schools > Computer Science & Informatics Schools > Mathematics |
| Additional Information: | For full author list please see the webpage at: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6048, 2026 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Feb 2026 17:15 |
| URI: | https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/184899 |
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