Ziwakaya, Paul Kundai, Lungu, Edward M. and Szomolay, Barbara  ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5375-5533
2026.
Evaluating the effects of an extreme event on the employment-related gross domestic product: The COVID-19 example.
Bulletin of the Iranian Mathematical Society
52
, 20.
10.1007/s41980-026-01041-2
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Abstract
This study examined the impact of an extreme event on the Employment-related Gross Domestic Product (EGDP) and focused on the COVID-19 pandemic. We have analyzed the interplay between epidemic spread, vaccination efforts, levels of compliance to non-pharmaceutical protocols, and their economic consequences, and have highlighted how such events can influence a nation’s economic trajectory. We have determined an optimal pair for the vaccination rate, v, and the efficacy level for the non-pharmaceutical measures, u that can maintain a sufficient workforce size that maintains economic growth. The study has recommended and as optimal ranges for these parameters. Our findings suggest that a dual strategy combining pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures is the only strategy that can optimize infection control and maintain adequate levels of workforce participation. A single strategy of either a pharmaceutical or a non-pharmaceutical intervention is not sufficient and therefore not recommended, as such a strategy although it can lower the number of infectives fails to clear the infected population, a scenario which can lead to disease recurrence. This study provides a framework for policymakers to mitigate the economic impact of future pandemics through effective intervention strategies.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Date Type: | Published Online |
| Status: | Published |
| Schools: | Schools > Medicine |
| Publisher: | Iranian Mathematical Society |
| ISSN: | 1018-6301 |
| Date of Acceptance: | 9 February 2026 |
| Last Modified: | 18 Mar 2026 13:00 |
| URI: | https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/185843 |
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