The changing relationship between new cleavages and policy outcomes

Prosser, Thomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5697-4339 and Dolinsky, Alona O. 2026. The changing relationship between new cleavages and policy outcomes. Parliamentary Affairs , gsag026. 10.1093/pa/gsag026

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Abstract

We argue that ‘new’ cleavages (education, age, ethnicity, and urban–rural) have a changing and critical influence on policy outcomes. This influence works through party and extra-party mechanisms, reflecting the decline of the economic cleavage and the distinct logic of new cleavages. We ground our argument in a literature review; this allows us to identify continuities between work on partisanship and new cleavages. Debates about age and immigration are extensive, with distinct views of the relationship between cleavages and outcomes underpinning these. ‘Neo-pluralists’ emphasize links between demographic changes and outcomes; institutional theorists underline path dependency. Investigations of the urban–rural cleavage underscore the importance of policy visibility and the conditions in which rural voters influence policy outcomes. Studies of education are underdeveloped. Concluding, we argue that our analysis confirms the role of age and ethnicity as major cleavages. In future, researchers might reflect on specific links between new cleavages and parties, making better use of qualitative methods.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	In Press
Schools:	Schools > Business (Including Economics)
Additional Information:	License information from Publisher: LICENSE 1: URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, Type: cc-by
Publisher:	Oxford University Press
ISSN:	0031-2290
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	29 June 2026
Date of Acceptance:	26 May 2026
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2026 14:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/187784

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