Probabalistic wind power forecasting using a single forecast

Qadrdan, Meysam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6167-2933, Ghodsi, Mansoureh and Wu, Jianzhong ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7928-3602 2013. Probabalistic wind power forecasting using a single forecast. International Journal of Energy and Statistics 1 (2) , p. 99. 10.1142/S2335680413500075

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Abstract

This paper develops a new approach for producing probabilistic wind power forecasts using a single forecast. The Singular Spectrum Analysis technique is used as the forecasting technique. Given the confidence interval calculated for the single forecast, a large number of random forecasts were generated through the Monte Carlo method. The purpose of generating probabilistic wind power forecasts is to use the results in a stochastic programming unit commitment problem. Therefore, probabilistic forecasts are reduced to a small number of representative forecast scenarios by applying a scenario reduction algorithm. The stability of the scenario reduction algorithm is also evaluated. The results indicate that the insignificant changes of operational cost of the stochastic programming problem reflect a deletion of unimportant forecast scenarios

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Engineering Schools > Mathematics
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Wind power forecast; Singular Spectrum Analysis; Scenario reduction; Probabilistic forecast; Monte Carlo simulation
Publisher:	World Science Publishing
ISSN:	2335-6804
Last Modified:	25 Oct 2022 09:24
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/58332

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