A credit-banking explanation of the equity premium, term premium, and risk-free rate puzzles

Scheffel, Eric 2008. A credit-banking explanation of the equity premium, term premium, and risk-free rate puzzles. [Working Paper]. Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff: Cardiff University.

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Abstract

Micro-founded de-centralized financial intermediation in a cash and costly-credit model(see Gillman and Kejak, 2008) results in a cost-distortion of returns implying a lower average nominal and real risk-free rate when compared to standard cash-in-advance RBC models. Failure of both short-run and long-run Fisher equation relationships based on observable real and nominal rates and inflation are obtained. The cost-distortion also leads to an unconditionally upward-sloping average yield curve of interest rates which is also convex in shape. The model is capable of producing a positive correlation between the nominal rate and velocity, and a negative correlation between the ex-post real rate and inflation. More importantly, the model also predicts a negative correlation between the ex-ante real rate and the ex-ante expected rate of inflation. Finally, the conditional spread between the usual CCAPM rate as defined by Canzoneri and Diba (2005) and the model-implied money market rate is positively correlated with the stance of monetary policy, offering a new perspective on this systematic link recently studied empirically by Canzoneri et al. (2007a) and theoretically by Canzoneri and Diba (2005).

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Publisher:	Cardiff University
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	30 March 2016
Last Modified:	06 Oct 2015 13:23
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/77811

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