A model of chaotic drug markets and their control.

Behrens, Doris, Caulkins, J. P. and Feichtinger, G. 2004. A model of chaotic drug markets and their control. Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences 8 (3) , pp. 375-401.

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Abstract

This paper explores the idea that drug markets may be chaotic in a mathematical sense by considering a discrete-time model of populations of drug users and drug sellers for which initiation into either population is a function of relative numbers of both populations. The structure of the system follows that considered in an arms control context by Behrens, Feichtinger and Prskawetz (Behrens D.A., Feichtinger G., & Prskawetz A. (1997). Complex Dynamics and Control of Arms Race. European Journal of Operations Research, 100, 192-215). The model presented in this paper summarizes prerequisites for possible chaotic behavior of the number of addicts and drug dealers frequenting a local drug market. Interestingly, even if the uncontrolled market dynamics do not exhibit chaotic patterns, a static intervention like removing a constant fraction of addicts each time period can easily create chaos--but even if static control would create chaos, dynamic controls can be crafted that avoid it. Especially OGY controls seem to work well for this example.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Mathematics
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Publisher:	Society for Chaos theory
Last Modified:	10 Oct 2017 17:13
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/93775

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