A cross-national measure of electoral competitiveness

Kayser, Mark Andreas and Lindstadt, Rene ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7349-465X 2015. A cross-national measure of electoral competitiveness. Political Analysis 23 (2) , pp. 242-253. 10.1093/pan/mpv001

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Abstract

Electoral competitiveness is a key explanatory construct across a broad swath of phenomena, finding application in diverse areas related to political incentives and behavior. Despite its frequent theoretical use, no valid measure of electoral competitiveness exists that applies across different electoral and party systems. We argue that one particular type of electoral competitiveness'electoral risk'can be estimated across institutional contexts and matters most for incumbent behavior. We propose, estimate, and make available a cross-nationally applicable measure for elections in 22 developed democracies between 1960 and 2011. Unlike extant alternatives, our measure captures vote volatility and is constructed at the party (not system) level, exogenous to most policy predictors, and congruent with the perceptions and incentives of policy-makers.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Department of Politics and International Relations (POLIR) Cardiff Law & Politics
Subjects:	J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Additional Information:	Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 January 2017.
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press (CUP)
ISSN:	1047-1987
Last Modified:	02 Nov 2022 10:18
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/98139

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