Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events

MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Kolstad, Erik W., Michaelides, Katerina and Singer, Michael Bliss ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6899-2224 2024. Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events. Geophysical Research Letters 51 (5) , e2023GL105258. 10.1029/2023gl105258

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Abstract

Strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events like those in 1997 and 2019 caused significant flooding in East Africa. While future projections indicate an increase in pIOD events, limited historical data hinders a comprehensive understanding of these extremes, particularly for unprecedented events. To overcome this we utilize a large ensemble of seasonal reforecast simulations, which show that regional rainfall continues to increase with pIOD magnitude, with no apparent limit. In particular we find that extreme rain days are highly sensitive to the pIOD index and their seasonal frequency increases super‐linearly with higher pIOD magnitudes. It is vital that socio‐economic systems and infrastructure are able to handle not only the increasing frequency of events like 1997 and 2019 but also unprecedented seasons of extreme rainfall driven by as‐yet‐unseen pIOD events. Future studies should prioritize understanding the hydrological implications and population exposure to these unprecedented extremes in East Africa.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Earth and Environmental Sciences
Additional Information:	License information from Publisher: LICENSE 1: URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Publisher:	Wiley Open Access
ISSN:	0094-8276
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	1 March 2024
Date of Acceptance:	9 January 2024
Last Modified:	09 May 2024 01:30
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/166742

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