Cardiff University | Prifysgol Caerdydd ORCA
Online Research @ Cardiff 
WelshClear Cookie - decide language by browser settings

Browse by Current Cardiff authors

[up] Up a level
Number of items: 47.

Odongo, Rhoda A., Schrieks, Teun, Streefkerk, Ileen, de Moel, Hans, Busker, Tim, Haer, Toon, MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Michaelides, Katerina, Singer, Michael ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6899-2224, Assen, Mohammed, Otieno, George and Van Loon, Anne F. 2025. Drought impacts and community adaptation: perspectives on the 2020-2023 drought in East Africa. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 119 , 105309. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105309
file

Cocking, Katherine, Singer, Michael Bliss ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6899-2224, MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Cuthbert, Mark O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6721-022X, Rosolem, Rafael, Muthusi, Flavian, Paron, Paolo, Kimutai, Joyce, Omondi, Phillip, Hassan, Ahmed Mohamed, Teshome, Asaminew and Michaelides, Katerina 2024. Locally defined seasonal rainfall characteristics within the Horn of Africa drylands from rain gauge observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 25 (12) , pp. 1845-1861. 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0228.1
file

Kolstad, Erik W., Parker, Douglas J., MacLeod, David A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Wainwright, Caroline M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846 and Hirons, Linda C. 2024. Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 150 (764) , pp. 4550-4566. 10.1002/qj.4829
file

Mwangi, Emmah, MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Kniveton, Dominic and Todd, Martin C. 2024. Variability of rainy season onsets over East Africa. International Journal of Climatology 44 (10) , pp. 3357-3379. 10.1002/joc.8528
file

MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Kolstad, Erik W., Michaelides, Katerina and Singer, Michael Bliss ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6899-2224 2024. Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events. Geophysical Research Letters 51 (5) , e2023GL105258. 10.1029/2023gl105258
file

Antonio, Bobby, Rae, Andrew T. T., MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Cooper, Fenwick C., Marsham, John, Aitchison, Laurence, Palmer, Tim N. and Watson, Peter A. G. 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. [Online]. Authorea. Available at: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.170967780.04179996/v1

Antonio, Bobby, McRae, Andrew, MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Cooper, Fenwick, Marsham, John, Aitchison, Laurence, Palmer, Tim and Watson, Peter 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14-19 April 2024. EGU General Assembly 2024 Abstracts. Copernicus, 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2897
file

Steinke, Jonathan, Ortiz-Crespo, Berta, van Etten, Jacob, Borman, Gareth Denis, Hassena, Mohammed, Kretschmer, Marlene, MacLeod, David A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450 and Muungani, Dean 2023. Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts. Climate Services 32 , 100410. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100410
file

Macleod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Quichimbo Miguitama, Edisson, Michaelides, Katerina, Teklu Asfaw, Dagmawi, Rosolem, Rafael, Cuthbert, Mark O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6721-022X, Otenyo, Erick, Segele, Zewdu, Rigby, Jacob M., Otieno, George, Hassaballah, Khalid, Tadege, Abebe and Singer, Michael Bliss ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6899-2224 2023. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making. PLOS Climate 2 (3) , e0000138. 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138
file

Mwangi, Emmah, Taylor, Olivia, Todd, Martin C., Visman, Emma, Kniveton, Dom, Kilavi, Mary, Ndegwa, William, Otieno, George, Waruru, Shamton, Mwangi, John, Ambani, Maurine, Abdillahi, Halima, MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Rowhani, Pedram, Graham, Richard and Colman, Andrew 2022. Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya. Climate and Development 14 (8) , 741–756. 10.1080/17565529.2021.1984194
file

Kolstad, Erik W. and MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450 2022. Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains. Climate Dynamics 59 , 1043–1056. 10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6

White, Christopher J., Domeisen, Daniela I. V., Acharya, Nachiketa, Adefisan, Elijah A., Anderson, Michael L., Aura, Stella, Balogun, Ahmed A., Bertram, Douglas, Bluhm, Sonia, Brayshaw, David J., Browell, Jethro, Büeler, Dominik, Charlton-Perez, Andrew, Chourio, Xandre, Christel, Isadora, Coelho, Caio A. S., DeFlorio, Michael J., Delle Monache, Luca, Di Giuseppe, Francesca, García-Solórzano, Ana María, Gibson, Peter B., Goddard, Lisa, González Romero, Carmen, Graham, Richard J., Graham, Robert M., Grams, Christian M., Halford, Alan, Huang, W. T. Katty, Jensen, Kjeld, Kilavi, Mary, Lawal, Kamoru A., Lee, Robert W., MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Manrique-Suñén, Andrea, Martins, Eduardo S. P. R., Maxwell, Carolyn J., Merryfield, William J., Muñoz, Ángel G., Olaniyan, Eniola, Otieno, George, Oyedepo, John A., Palma, Lluís, Pechlivanidis, Ilias G., Pons, Diego, Ralph, F. Martin, Reis, Dirceu S., Remenyi, Tomas A., Risbey, James S., Robertson, Donald J. C., Robertson, Andrew W., Smith, Stefan, Soret, Albert, Sun, Ting, Todd, Martin C., Tozer, Carly R., Vasconcelos, Francisco C., Vigo, Ilaria, Waliser, Duane E., Wetterhall, Fredrik and Wilson, Robert G. 2022. Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103 (6) , E1448–E1472. 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1

Otieno, D.G., MacLeod, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Todd, M.C., Visman, E., Graham, R., Waruru, S., Tadege, A. and Hassaballah, K. 2022. Climate predictions in a forecast based action (FbA) pilot within the Greater Horn of Africa; Experiences from ForPAc and Down2Earth projects. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2129

Muktadir, M.A., Koppa, A., Claessen, J., MacLeod, D.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Singer, M. and Miralles, D.G. 2022. Links between land cover change and climate in the Horn of Africa. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10577

Boult, Victoria L., Black, Emily, Saado Abdillahi, Halima, Bailey, Meghan, Harris, Clare, Kilavi, Mary, Kniveton, Dominic, MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Mwangi, Emmah, Otieno, George, Rees, Elizabeth, Rowhani, Pedram, Taylor, Olivia and Todd, Martin C. 2022. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management 35 , 100402. 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402
file

MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Asfaw, Dagmawi, Michaelides, Katerina, Otenyo, Erick, Tadege, Abebe, Segele, Zewdu, Otieno, George, Hassaballah, Khalid, Quichimbo, Andrés, Cuthbert, Mark ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6721-022X and Singer, Michael 2022. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into decision-relevant water security forecasts. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, 23–27 May 2022. 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2804

MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Easton-Calabria, Evan, de Perez, Erin Coughlan and Jaime, Catalina 2021. Verification of forecasts for extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, flood and storm surge over Myanmar and the Philippines. Weather and Climate Extremes 33 , 100325. 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100325
file

Singer, Michael Bliss ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6899-2224, Asfaw, Dagmawi Teklu, Rosolem, Rafael, Cuthbert, Mark O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6721-022X, Miralles, Diego G., MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Quichimbo, Edisson Andres and Michaelides, Katerina 2021. Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1˚ resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present. Scientific Data 8 , 224. 10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9
file

Guigma, Kiswendsida H., MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Todd, Martin and Wang, Yi 2021. Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability. Climate Dynamics 57 (1-2) , 537–556. 10.1007/s00382-021-05726-8
file

Kolstad, E. W., MacLeod, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450 and Demissie, T. D. 2021. Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (14) , e2021GL093292. 10.1029/2021GL093292
file

MacLeod, David A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Dankers, Rutger, Graham, Richard, Guigma, Kiswendsida, Jenkins, Luke, Todd, Martin C., Kiptum, Augustine, Kilavi, Mary, Njogu, Andrew and Mwangi, Emmah 2021. Drivers and subseasonal predictability of heavy rainfall in Equatorial East Africa and relationship with flood risk. Journal of Hydrometeorology 22 (4) , 887–903. 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0211.1

de Andrade, Felipe M., Young, Matthew P., MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Hirons, Linda C., Woolnough, Steven J. and Black, Emily 2021. Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting 36 (1) , 265–284. 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1
file

MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Graham, Richard, O'Reilly, Chris, Otieno, George and Todd, Martin 2021. Causal pathways linking different flavours of ENSO with the Greater Horn of Africa short rains. Atmospheric Science Letters 22 (2) , e1015. 10.1002/asl.1015

MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Kilavi, Mary, Mwangi, Emmah, Ambani, Maurine, Osunga, Michael, Robbins, Joanne, Graham, Richard, Rowhani, Pedram and Todd, Martin C. 2021. Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21 , pp. 261-277. 10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021
file

MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Kniveton, Dominic R. and Todd, Martin C. 2021. Playing the long game: anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts. Climate Risk Management 34 , 100375. 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375
file

Weisheimer, A., Decremer, D., MacLeod, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, O'Reilly, C., Stockdale, T., Johnson, S. and Palmer, T. 2021. How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation? Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2021, Online, 19–30 Apr 2021. 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2928

MacLeod, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Kilavi, M., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Graham, R. and Todd, M. 2020. Subseasonal forecasts for humanitarian decision-making in Kenya: understanding forecast skill and the latest results from the S2S ForPAc real-time pilot study. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2020, 4–8 May 2020. 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3533

MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450 and Caminade, Cyril 2019. The moderate impact of the 2015 el niño over East Africa and its representation in seasonal reforecasts. Journal of Climate 32 (22) , 7989–8001. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0201.1

MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450 2019. Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments. Climate Dynamics 53 (7-8) , 4505–4520. 10.1007/s00382-019-04800-6

Kilavi, Mary, MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Ambani, Maurine, Robbins, Joanne, Dankers, Rutger, Graham, Richard, Titley, Helen, Salih, Abubakr A. M. and Todd, Martin C. 2018. Extreme rainfall and flooding over Central Kenya including Nairobi city during the long-rains season 2018: causes, predictability, and potential for early warning and actions. Atmosphere 9 (12) , 472. 10.3390/atmos9120472

Hosking, J Scott, MacLeod, D ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Phillips, T, Holmes, C R, Watson, P, Shuckburgh, E F and Mitchell, D 2018. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters 13 (5) , 054032. 10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78

MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, O'Reilly, Chris, Palmer, Tim and Weisheimer, Antje 2018. Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atmospheric Science Letters 19 (5) , e815. 10.1002/asl.815

MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Torralba, Verónica, Davis, Melanie and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco 2017. Transforming climate model output to forecasts of wind power production: how much resolution is enough? Meteorological Applications 25 (1) , pp. 1-10. 10.1002/met.1660

White, Christopher J., Carlsen, Henrik, Robertson, Andrew W., Klein, Richard J.T., Lazo, Jeffrey K., Kumar, Arun, Vitart, Frederic, Coughlan de Perez, Erin, Ray, Andrea J., Murray, Virginia, Bharwani, Sukaina, MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, James, Rachel, Fleming, Lora, Morse, Andrew P., Eggen, Bernd, Graham, Richard, Kjellström, Erik, Becker, Emily, Pegion, Kathleen V., Holbrook, Neil J., McEvoy, Darryn, Depledge, Michael, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah, Brown, Timothy J., Street, Roger, Jones, Lindsey, Remenyi, Tomas A., Hodgson-Johnston, Indi, Buontempo, Carlo, Lamb, Rob, Meinke, Holger, Arheimer, Berit and Zebiak, Stephen E. 2017. Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications 24 (3) , pp. 315-325. 10.1002/met.1654

Leutbecher, Martin, Lock, Sarah-Jane, Ollinaho, Pirkka, Lang, Simon T. K., Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Bechtold, Peter, Bonavita, Massimo, Christensen, Hannah M., Diamantakis, Michail, Dutra, Emanuel, English, Stephen, Fisher, Michael, Forbes, Richard M., Goddard, Jacqueline, Haiden, Thomas, Hogan, Robin J., Juricke, Stephan, Lawrence, Heather, MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Magnusson, Linus, Malardel, Sylvie, Massart, Sebastien, Sandu, Irina, Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K., Subramanian, Aneesh, Vitart, Frédéric, Wedi, Nils and Weisheimer, Antje 2017. Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143 (707) , pp. 2315-2339. 10.1002/qj.3094

O'Reilly, Christopher H., Heatley, James, MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Weisheimer, Antje, Palmer, Tim N., Schaller, Nathalie and Woollings, Tim 2017. Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 44 (11) , pp. 5729-5738. 10.1002/2017GL073736

Torralba, Verónica, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Christel, Isadora and Davis, Melanie 2017. Seasonal climate prediction: a new source of information for the management of wind energy resources. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 56 (5) , 1231–1247. 10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0204.1

Weisheimer, Antje, Schaller, Nathalie, O'Reilly, Christopher, MacLeod, David A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450 and Palmer, Tim 2017. Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143 (703) , pp. 917-926. 10.1002/qj.2976
file

MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Cloke, Hannah, Pappenberger, Florian and Weisheimer, Antje 2016. Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20 (7) , 2737–2743. 10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016

MacLeod, David A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Cloke, Hannah L., Pappenberger, Florian and Weisheimer, Antje 2016. Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142 (694) , pp. 79-90. 10.1002/qj.2631

MacLeod, Dave A ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Jones, Anne, Di Giuseppe, Francesca, Caminade, Cyril and Morse, Andrew P 2015. Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model. Environmental Research Letters 10 (4) , 044005. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044005

Shi, W., Schaller, N., MacLeod, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Palmer, T. N. and Weisheimer, A. 2015. Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters 42 (5) , pp. 1554-1559. 10.1002/2014GL062829

MacLeod, D. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450 and Morse, A. P. 2014. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk. Scientific Reports 4 , 7264. 10.1038/srep07264

Lauderdale, Jonathan M, Caminade, Cyril, Heath, Andrew E, Jones, Anne E, MacLeod, David A ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Gouda, Krushna C, Murty, Upadhyayula Suryanarayana, Goswami, Prashant, Mutheneni, Srinivasa R and Morse, Andrew P 2014. Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India. Malaria Journal 13 (1) , 310. 10.1186/1475-2875-13-310

Caminade, Cyril, Ndione, Jacques A., Diallo, Mawlouth, MacLeod, Dave A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Faye, Ousmane, Ba, Yamar, Dia, Ibrahima and Morse, Andrew P. 2014. Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Mauritania and related environmental conditions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 11 (1) , pp. 903-918. 10.3390/ijerph110100903

MacLeod, Dave ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450 2013. Quantifying uncertainty in climate-driven disease risk predictions. PhD Thesis, University of Liverpool.

MacLeod, D A ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Caminade, C and Morse, A P 2012. Useful decadal climate prediction at regional scales? A look at the ENSEMBLES stream 2 decadal hindcasts. Environmental Research Letters 7 (4) , 044012. 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044012

This list was generated on Fri Mar 14 05:55:12 2025 GMT.


Maintained by Cardiff University Information Services