England, Tracey, Gartner, Daniel  ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4361-8559, Ostler, Edward, Harper, Paul ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7894-4907, Behrens, D, Boulton, J, Bull, D, Cordeaux, C, Jenkins, I, Lindsay, F, Monk, R and Watkins, L
2021.
Near real-time bed modelling feasibility study.
Journal of Simulation
15
(4)
, pp. 261-272.
10.1080/17477778.2019.1706434
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Abstract
Hospital bed management is crucial to ensure that patients do not have to wait for the right bed for their care. A simulation model has been developed that mimics the bed management rules applied to the Trauma & Orthopaedic wards of a busy Welsh hospital. The model includes forecasting methodologies to predict the number of emergency admissions, split by gender. The model uses near real-time admission data to see whether patients will be admitted to a given ward on a given day in a 7-day planning horizon. The one-week feasibility pilot study examined the accuracy and usability of the tool. The study has shown that it is possible to correctly predict the short-term processes of a Trauma & Orthopaedic bed management system by accurately forecasting arrivals, using known data and statistical distributions to predict patient length of stay, and applying generic bed management rules to dictate their placement.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Date Type: | Publication |
| Status: | Published |
| Schools: | Schools > Mathematics |
| Publisher: | Palgrave Macmillan |
| ISSN: | 1747-7778 |
| Date of First Compliant Deposit: | 6 January 2020 |
| Date of Acceptance: | 5 December 2019 |
| Last Modified: | 20 Nov 2024 08:45 |
| URI: | https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/128122 |
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