Identifying patients with undiagnosed small intestinal neuroendocrine tumours in primary care using statistical and machine learning: model development and validation study

Clift, Ash Kieran, Mahon, Hadley, Khan, Ghazanfar, Boardman-Pretty, Freya, Worker, Amanda, Marchini, Elena, Buendia, Orlando, Fish, Peter and Khan, Mohid S. 2024. Identifying patients with undiagnosed small intestinal neuroendocrine tumours in primary care using statistical and machine learning: model development and validation study. British Journal of Cancer 131 , pp. 305-311. 10.1038/s41416-024-02736-1

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Abstract

Background: Neuroendocrine tumours (NETs) are increasing in incidence, often diagnosed at advanced stages, and individuals may experience years of diagnostic delay, particularly when arising from the small intestine (SI). Clinical prediction models could present novel opportunities for case finding in primary care. Methods: An open cohort of adults (18+ years) contributing data to the Optimum Patient Care Research Database between 1st Jan 2000 and 30th March 2023 was identified. This database collects de-identified data from general practices in the UK. Model development approaches comprised logistic regression, penalised regression, and XGBoost. Performance (discrimination and calibration) was assessed using internal-external cross-validation. Decision analysis curves compared clinical utility. Results: Of 11.7 million individuals, 382 had recorded SI NET diagnoses (0.003%). The XGBoost model had the highest AUC (0.869, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.841–0.898) but was mildly miscalibrated (slope 1.165, 95% CI: 1.088–1.243; calibration-in-the-large 0.010, 95% CI: −0.164 to 0.185). Clinical utility was similar across all models. Discussion: Multivariable prediction models may have clinical utility in identifying individuals with undiagnosed SI NETs using information in their primary care records. Further evaluation including external validation and health economics modelling may identify cost-effective strategies for case finding for this uncommon tumour.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Medicine
Additional Information:	License information from Publisher: LICENSE 1: URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, Type: open-access
Publisher:	Springer Nature
ISSN:	0007-0920
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	23 July 2024
Date of Acceptance:	23 May 2024
Last Modified:	23 Jul 2024 09:50
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/170843

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