Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains

Kolstad, Erik W., Parker, Douglas J., MacLeod, David A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Wainwright, Caroline M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846 and Hirons, Linda C. 2024. Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4829

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Abstract

The East African “short rains” from October–December (OND) are crucial for the region's cultural and agricultural landscape. Traditional climate studies have often treated these rains as a single mode, representing the average rainfall across the region. This approach, however, fails to capture the complex geographical variations in seasonal rainfall. In our study, we analyse 4200 reforecasts from a seasonal prediction system spanning 1981–2022, identifying distinct clusters that represent different geographical patterns of the short rains. We explore the influence of tropical sea‐surface temperature patterns, upper‐level tropospheric flow, and low‐level moisture fluxes on these clusters. A key revelation of our research is the limited predictability of certain geographical rainfall structures based on large‐scale climatic drivers. This finding highlights a gap in current forecasting methodologies, emphasising the necessity for further research to understand and predict these intricate patterns. Our study illuminates the complexities of regional rainfall variability in East Africa, underlining the importance of continued investigation to improve climate resilience strategies in the region.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	In Press
Schools:	Earth and Environmental Sciences
Additional Information:	License information from Publisher: LICENSE 1: URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Publisher:	Wiley
ISSN:	0035-9009
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	27 August 2024
Date of Acceptance:	17 July 2024
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2024 17:30
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/171598

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