Locally defined seasonal rainfall characteristics within the Horn of Africa drylands from rain gauge observations

Cocking, Katherine, Singer, Michael Bliss ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6899-2224, MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450, Cuthbert, Mark O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6721-022X, Rosolem, Rafael, Muthusi, Flavian, Paron, Paolo, Kimutai, Joyce, Omondi, Phillip, Hassan, Ahmed Mohamed, Teshome, Asaminew and Michaelides, Katerina 2024. Locally defined seasonal rainfall characteristics within the Horn of Africa drylands from rain gauge observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 25 (12) , pp. 1845-1861. 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0228.1

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Abstract

Seasonal rainfall is critical to lives and livelihoods within the Horn of Africa drylands (HAD), but it is highly variable in space and time. The HAD rainfall seasons are typically defined as March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND). However, these three-month periods are only generalised definitions of seasonality across the HAD, and local experience of rainfall may depart from these substantially. Here, we use daily rain gauge data with a duration of at least 10 years from 69 stations across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia to locally delineate key rainfall seasons. By calculating local seasonal rainfall timings, totals, and extremes we obtain more accurate estimates of the spatial variability in rainfall delivery across the HAD, as well as climatological patterns. Results show high spatial variability in season onset, cessation, and length across the region, indicating that a homogenous classification of rainfall seasons across the HAD (e.g. MAM and OND) is inadequate for representing local rainfall characteristics. Our results show that the ‘long rains’ season is not significantly longer than ‘short rains’ season over the period of study. This could be related to the previously documented decline of the ‘long rains’ rainfall totals over recent decades. Several rainfall metrics also vary spatially between seasons, and the rainfall on the most extreme days can accumulate to double the mean seasonal total. The locally defined rainfall seasons better capture the bulk of the rainfall during the season, giving improved characterisation of rainfall metrics, consistent with the aim of a better understanding of rainfall impacts on local communities.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Earth and Environmental Sciences
Publisher:	American Meteorological Society
ISSN:	1525-755X
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	11 November 2024
Date of Acceptance:	30 September 2024
Last Modified:	17 Dec 2024 15:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/173266

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