SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks

Daron, Joseph, Michaelides, Katerina, Hassaballah, Khalid, Quichimbo, Andrés, Parfitt, Rebecca, Stacey, Jessica, Steynor, Anna, Johnson, Catrina, MacLeod, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5504-6450 and Singer, Michael Bliss ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6899-2224 2025. SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks. Climate Services 38 , 100579. 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100579

PDF - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial. Download (2MB)

Abstract

Communities across the world are sensitive to the impacts of seasonal climate variability, particularly in regions where distinct rainfall seasons support livelihoods and economic activities. Timely and actionable warnings of hazardous seasonal conditions and advisories tailored to different sectors can enable people to respond, reduce risks, and seize opportunities. Yet despite advances in seasonal forecasting methods and capabilities, there remains a lack of “impact-based” seasonal climate outlooks that more directly serve societal needs while preserving uncertainty information for risk-based decision making. Here we present a new method to address this gap, focusing on implementation in Regional and National Climate Outlook Forums and targeted at intermediary users who support the communication of seasonal outlooks across scales. The Seasonal IMpact-Based OutLook (SIMBOL) method provides a simple and scalable approach for use in regions across the world. We describe the conceptual basis for the method, embedded in the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) framework, and demonstrate its application through a case study of seasonal total rainfall impacts on groundwater in Somalia, trialled at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) in February 2024. We elaborate the critical role of co-production amongst different knowledge holders for characterizing impacts across all potential outlook outcomes, avoiding advisories that are biased towards the “most likely” outcome. We also discuss the importance of objective evidence from impact modelling and observations to consider antecedent conditions. Lessons learned and challenges encountered in developing the method are discussed to inform opportunities for future development and implementation in different contexts.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Earth and Environmental Sciences
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	2405-8807
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	9 July 2025
Date of Acceptance:	9 May 2025
Last Modified:	15 Jul 2025 13:57
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/179681

Actions (repository staff only)

Edit Item