Growth synchrony in white spruce across Canada and Alaska: climate or distance?

Wu, Fang, Jia, Junwen, Li, Cheng and Cui, Xuefeng 2025. Growth synchrony in white spruce across Canada and Alaska: climate or distance? Environmental Research: Climate 4 (4) , 045007. 10.1088/2752-5295/ae1051

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Abstract

Boreal forests, which serve as major terrestrial carbon sinks, are experiencing rapid warming across much of their range. Spatial synchrony in tree growth is crucial for the stability and persistence of these forests. Despite its importance, the geographic patterns and drivers of tree growth synchrony in boreal forests remain underexplored. This study aims to address these gaps by investigating growth synchrony of white spruce (Picea glauca), a widespread boreal species of significant ecological and economic value. Using tree-ring data from 187 sites, we quantified growth synchrony with the synchronous growth change coefficient, a non-parametric index capturing consistency in year-to-year variations. We then analyzed its spatial pattern and drivers using complex network analysis and multiple regression on distance matrices (MRM). We found that white spruce growth synchrony follows a clear biogeographical pattern, decreasing from northwest to southeast. The relationship between growth synchrony and geographic distance was non-linear, deviating from the typical distance-decay pattern described by Tobler’s First Law of Geography. Specifically, synchrony increased as geographic distance decreased at shorter distances, but reversed at longer distances, where more distant sites showed relatively stronger synchrony. MRM analysis showed that climate factors explained 55% of the variance in growth synchrony, with geographic proximity contributing minimally after accounting for climate (increasing to 56%). These results suggest that synchronization of climate, particularly temperature, was the primary driver of spatial synchrony in white spruce growth, while spatial proximity-related mechanisms played a limited role. Given that high synchrony can reduce population stability, we recommend prioritizing management efforts that promote asynchronous growth, especially in regions exhibiting strong synchrony (e.g. northern Northwest Territories and Yukon). These findings provide new insights into boreal forest dynamics and inform adaptive management and conservation strategies in the face of ongoing climate change.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Earth and Environmental Sciences
Additional Information:	License information from Publisher: LICENSE 1: URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, Type: cc-by
Publisher:	IOP Publishing
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	24 October 2025
Date of Acceptance:	7 October 2025
Last Modified:	24 Oct 2025 09:15
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/181878

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