Forecasting the educational participation rate of 16-year olds in England and Wales: A socio-economic approach

Whitfield, Keith Leslie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1184-5530 and Wilson, R. A. 1991. Forecasting the educational participation rate of 16-year olds in England and Wales: A socio-economic approach. International Journal of Forecasting 7 (1) , pp. 65-76. 10.1016/0169-2070(91)90034-S

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Abstract

This paper describes a model of the educational participation rate of 16-year olds in England and Wales which is used to produce forecasts up to 1995/1996. Previous models are briefly reviewed and argued to be inadequate. A new socio-economic model is presented based upon principles of cointegration and general to specific modelling, which satisfies a battery of diagnostic tests. Projections based on the model suggest that there will be a substantial rise in the educational participation rate in the period to 1995/1996. This projected rise is much greater than that suggested by the trend-extrapolation techniques which are more commonly used in this area.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Schools > Business (Including Economics)
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0169-2070
Last Modified:	28 Oct 2022 08:25
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/70640

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