The Greek debt crisis: likely causes, mechanics and outcomes

Arghyrou, Michael ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6222-5086 and Tsoukalas, John D. 2010. The Greek debt crisis: likely causes, mechanics and outcomes. [Working Paper]. Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff: Cardiff University.

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Abstract

We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (a) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic fundamentals over 2001-2009 to levels inconsistent with longterm EMU participation; and (b) a double shift in markets’ expectations, from a regime of credible commitment to future EMU participation under an implicit EMU/German guarantee of Greek fiscal liabilities, to a regime of non-credible EMU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to other periphery EMU countries is significant; and that without extensive structural reforms the sustainability of the EMU is in question.

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Publisher:	Cardiff University
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	30 March 2016
Last Modified:	28 Oct 2022 10:19
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/77853

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